Morning Briefing — June 15, 2026

Trump and Iran Deal. President Trump is heading to the G7 summit with momentum from an announced agreement aimed at ending the Iran war. The deal, which Trump celebrated on his 80th birthday, also involves an order to stop the US naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran faces immediate challenges despite the announced ceasefire.

Economic Impact of Iran Deal. The U.S.-Iran deal has stirred inflation fears, even as oil prices have fallen to a three-month low following the announcement. Stock futures jumped in response to the news of a peace deal. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is a key component of the agreement, though its oil supply implications are still being assessed.

Trade and Tariffs. President Trump stated that France must eliminate its tech 'sales tax' or face 100% wine tariffs. This comes as a new report indicates that Trump's previous tariffs did not succeed in bringing back American factory jobs. The issue of trade disputes is expected to be a significant topic at the upcoming G7 summit.

Federal Reserve and Markets. The Federal Reserve's decision is anticipated to have no dissenters, according to JPM’s Berro. Strategists suggest the stock market is poised for significant movement if Warsh gives approval. Warsh faces a bind between President Trump and inflation, especially after a recent scorching report.